A mechanistic model for estimating the potential geographic distribution of almond crops was run using data from 20 global climate models over early- (2010-2039) and mid- (2040-2069) 21st century periods under future scenario RCP 8.5 (i.e. ‘business-as-usual’) to assess how the distribution of suitable cultivation locations for almond crops may shift under climate change. Additionally, almond phenology and the limiting climatological factors to almond cultivation – and their heterogeneity over time and space – were explored.
While a paper is forthcoming, slides from a presentation at the 7th Annual Northwest Climate Conference (November, 2016) can be found here.
The full paper, published in Climatic Change, can be found here.